Sharks and the Availability Bias

Do deer or sharks kill more people a year? If you look into stories covered in the media or reports on the internet you would find all kinds of horror stories and tales of sharks attacks and fatalities. Certainly most people have a very rational and natural fear of this large tooth filled animal. Steven Spielberg film Jaws went a long way to a general fear of being in shark infested waters for swimmers and paddlers. It is fair to say that if you like me were asked this question you would probably answer that of course sharks are more dangerous and attack more people a year than humble docile deer. The truth is a little more surprising.

You would actually be wrong, in fact deer kill many more people every year in car accidents than sharks attacking swimmers. The poor shark has become the victim of our own imaginations. Although I would still prefer to stroke a deer than a shark, the truth tell us that the shark is persecuted by our beliefs and this can of course have negative consequences if making an important uninformed decision. If we are not properly informed the decision could well be the wrong one and have a consequence for the shark that is unjustified. So what might be happening here. Well it seems this is part of what is know in psychology as the Availability Bias.

Availability Bias is a cognitive bias that generally causes us to over estimate a probable outcome based on how recently or well a memory is stored in our brains. So in the instance of the shark comparison because they have such a strong mental image for us, heightened by the news stories, internet tales and films, we have a stronger belief that this animal is more likely to attack us and base our belief on how easily we recall the shark in our minds. This incorrect information is the result of the availability bias. This the same condition that makes people fear flying when in fact there are far more fatal car accidents. The recall of the information is more likely to be based on how often and when we last heard of a similar event.

This bias can also affect how you approach a problem or business decision. You might jump to conclusion based on opinion and subjective information. The information you use may also be subject to this bias. Care must be taken when making assumptions about consumers and users of products. Without the real data or study of the target people it is too easy to make sweeping statements based on incorrect information. You might for example make a decision based on assumptions about the users preferences that are general opinion rather than fact. Do girls always like pink rather than blue? Do Apple consumers really hate Microsoft? Yes the media paints these pictures but that doesn't make them absolutely true, I am sure that some people buy Apple iPhones, but use Windows PC's at work, or there are girls out there that actually hate pink. The point being made here is that the availability bias can creep into product and service design as well as business decision very easily if the choice is made based on opinion rather than facts, or testing. We shouldn't rely on our most recent memory of this in the news or the last time we saw this product in use or use as the standard opinion of a small group of people. It is important to not allow this bias to cause us to make the wrong decision, as it can be quite incorrect.

Of course this says a lot about how we rely on the news, opinions, ratings and stories of others to inform our decisions. This is why we should be aware and careful the next time we jump to a conclusion without a little more research into the truth.

Growing your mind.

Brain Coral

I have been looking into some research that Standford psychologist Carol Dweck has done into achievement and success and what it has to do with how you think about yourself. She describes people as having basically two mindsets, a fixed mindset and a growth mindset. These two mindsets can greatly affect how you approach problem solving and how likely you are to take risks and potentially go about innovating. Your frame of mind can greatly affect your self esteem and affect your likely success at a task or venture. Mindset is something very insightful and worth considering if you are in any task that involves some risk and possibility of failure.

Looking firstly at the fixed mindset, it is described as simply having a point of view that talent and intelligence are fixed traits that cannot be changed. These types of people spend their time and effort documenting their abilities and talents instead of expanding them, they are primarily looking to prove themselves to others. They believe that talent leads to success. This mindset is formed through interactions with other people that respond to situations like testing, with attitudes about success and winning. It can be an outside influence such as a parent, boss or teacher, that creates this feeling and mindset in the individual or something that a particular person feels inside themselves that is reinforced through repetition. In children this mindset is formed with statements like "Good job, you are very smart" are more likely to develop a fixed mindset. This mindset is of course can be great when things are working and all is performing well, the problem really arises when something goes wrong or fails to meet expectations. The negative feelings that emerge can be inhibiting to later activities, as the fear of failure can make someone become more risk averse.

A growth mindset, on the other-hand, is someone that believes their abilities can be improved and expanded through practice, experimentation and physically performing tasks. In this mindset, learning and acceptance of failure is critical to success. This mindset has been shown by Carol, to increase motivation and productivity. This mindset is encouraged through positive reinforcement of the effort that has been put into a project rather than the results. In children this can be encouraged with words like "Good job, you worked very hard", this can make all the difference in how they percieve themselves if things go wrong, and willing they are to take risks later. What can be learnt from what went wrong is seen as something valuable to gain from what is done as well as what worked. This mindset, of course, is exactly the mindset you would need as a creative thinker, where often experimentation and discovery into unknowns will produce failures as well as successes.

The great thing about these mindsets is that they are not born into us, they are something learnt, and as a result we can alter our mindsets to the more positive growth mindset with an attention to how we perceive ourselves and what we do. It just takes practice in how we deal with failure and how we learn from mistakes. In my role as a creative director, this work is very insightful and valuable to how I approach projects with an open  mind to the risks and possibilities of some failure. It helps make sure the team understands that things can go wrong in development, especially if our assumptions are wrong. If I am wrong   then this is okay, what really matters to me and the team is what we can learn. What is most valuable is to evaluate what went wrong and how it can be improved towards a successful outcome. The ability to make and learn from mistakes, without retribution,  is what differentiates the successful companies and projects from the doomed to never work ones that will probably never innovate. Even beyond the practical use of this mindset in work, it is a good way to consider all aspects of you life and journey, with openness to unexpected opportunities and adventure. Sometimes following an unexpected path can lead to amazing new discoveries, that just needs a willingness to adapt and keep a mind that wants to grow.